Variational Scanner — Live USDC Treasury Tracker

Roadmap Tracker to the promise land

A clean read of the official Variational roadmap: what has shipped, where the project is on the path, and what gates are still ahead.

Current journey

63% of the listed path shipped

Every dated item from Q1 2025 through Q4 2025 is checked off in the docs, plus five undated items already shipped (read-only API, mobile, CSV exports, RWA Phase 1, portfolio analytics). Eleven undated items remain — in docs order, from Omni v3 all the way to Variational Pro.

19/30listed roadmap items completed

4quarters shipped

5undated shipped

11items left

✓ Q1 2025 Private mainnet · referral (limited)

✓ Q2 2025 Leaderboard · PnL cards · referral full

✓ Q3 2025 Leverage · liq prices · TP/SL · Omni v2

✓ Q4 2025 Tighter spreads · triggers · points

✓ Undated · shipped Read-only API · mobile · CSV · RWA P1

1 2026 · Omni v3 Major UI rework · isolated margin

2 2026 · Swaps & APIs Swaps P2–P3 · partial fills · API trading · stats

3 2026 · Launch era Public mainnet · $VAR · OLP vault · Pro

202514/14 dated shipped
+5 undated ✓

Q1 2025 2/2

Omni private mainnet launch
Limited launch of Omni referral program

Q2 2025 3/3

Leaderboard page
PnL cards
Full launch of Omni referral program

Q3 2025 4/4

Configurable leverage
Display estimated liquidation prices
TP/SL triggers on quoted, mark, or index
Major UI rework ("Omni v2")

Q4 2025 5/5

Quoting upgrade to tighten spreads
New order type: trigger
Enabled referral reward claims
Drag & drop TP/SL/Limit/Trigger on chart
Launch of the Omni points program

Undated · already shipped 5/5

Enable read-only Omni API
Improved mobile experience
CSV data exports
Initial launch of RWA markets ("Phase 1")
Improved portfolio page analytics

20260/11 · the road ahead

Undated backlog · docs order slotted 2026

Major UI rework ("Omni v3")
Isolated margin
Launch swaps ("Phase 2")
Partial fills of limit orders
Enable API trading
Protocol statistics page
Enable 24/7 trading of swaps ("Phase 3")
Omni public mainnet launch
Launch of the $VAR token
Open community vault for OLP
Launch of Variational Pro

The docs keep these items undated — this board slots them into 2026 as the working assumption, in the exact order the docs list them.

Source: Variational Docs Roadmap. The docs describe this as a living roadmap, not a fixed promised timeline.

Protocol money map

Core OLP Vault quotes liquidity, absorbs trading flow, and keeps the OLP / LP side of spread economics — its balance is not company revenue. 0x74bbbb…1f2cd ↗ Revenue cut — current docs model: — implied spread payments, of which 10% flows to Variational as protocol revenue (subject to change). Protocol Treasury — USDC actually accumulated on-chain; the cleanest measurable “company earns” number. 0x5e91…d645 ↗ Settlement Pool Factory creates settlement pools. It is infrastructure, not a direct revenue wallet. 0x0F820…074C ↗

syncingCore OLP Vault USDC Formula: USDC balanceOf(Core OLP Vault)

—treasury accumulated Formula: USDC balanceOf(Protocol Treasury)

—30D avg revenue / day Formula: (today treasury - treasury 30D ago) / 30

—implied total spreads Formula: treasury accumulated / 10% revenue cut

Printing right now · live · — ET

$0.00

USDC earned in the current ET hour · updates live

Actual earned · on-chain

—12 hours

—24 hours

—7 days

Hourly earnings · local daytime map

ET hourloadingloadingloadingloadingloadingsyncing…

Revenue Run-Rate FDV / MCAP input

How much real USDC this venue earns per day, week, and month. Annualize the pace and you have the revenue leg of any FDV or MCAP multiple.

MTD VIEWCurrent month-to-date

READ THIS FIRSTWindow activity → real money earned → valuation fuelMTD

1D PERP VOLUME—selected trading flow

OPEN INTEREST · LIVE SNAPSHOT—capital kept active in positions

→

1D SPREAD FEES PAID BY TRADERS—treasury ÷ 10%

→

1D VARIATIONAL TREASURY REVENUE—selected treasury inflow

—estimated 1D buyback-burn firepower1D treasury × 30%

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perp volume makes $1 in fees

—

volume makes $1 to treasury

—

TVL ex-hedging · official biweekly

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OI turns over per day

TVL — backs — OI → — capital efficiency · $1 of TVL supports — of daily volume · selected-window fee pool = — of TVL → fee capture scales with volume, not with parked capital. TVL from the official biweekly post (cross-check: Dune · Entropy Advisors). Not financial advice.

Official biweekly P&L: net profit — after all costs → open the full report

Is the exchange getting better at making money? Green up is good. Purple down is good. Together they show whether trading activity is turning into treasury revenue more efficiently.

Money engine—Selected treasury revenue. If this rises, the venue is earning more real USDC.

Efficiency—Volume needed for $1 to treasury. Lower means the exchange monetizes flow better.

What to watch—Best setup: green line rising while purple line falls.

Is Variational Getting Bigger and Making More Money? official report · every 2 weeks

This page keeps every number Variational published. It shows how many people use the exchange, how much they trade, what it costs to run, and how much money is left. —

1. Is it growing?Look at trading volume, open interest, TVL, and users. Bigger numbers usually mean more people and money are using the exchange.

2. Is it making money?Traders pay spreads. Subtract market-making costs and rewards. What remains is net profit.

3. Is cash really arriving?Treasury means real USDC held by the protocol. The on-chain check verifies that wallet separately.

Official reportMetrics copied from Variational's biweekly X post. New posts are appended, never overwritten. Open official post search

On-chain checkSix consecutive 14-day treasury inflow windows calculated from the Arbitrum USDC balance history. This updates without waiting for a post.

Money Made in the Latest 2 Weeksmoney traders paid → costs → money left over

The 8 Most Important Numberstoday · change since the first matching report · change since the last report

Real Cash Added Every 14 DaysUSDC entering the treasury wallet before the next report arrives

Latest Exchange Snapshotall numbers come from the same official report

Every Number Over Timeevery dot is a real official report · every published number is kept

How to read this: Green ↑ means the number went up. Pink ↓ means it went down. Up is not always good: costs and refunds are better when lower. Older reports used “2-week Revenue”; newer reports show trader spreads, costs, and profit separately, so those lines are not mixed.

All Official Reports, Side by Sidenewest first · each value includes its change from the previous matching report

Open One Complete Reportchoose a date to see every single number published that day

Official report date

Implied Spreads money circuit

One view for the whole engine: volume creates customer spread payments, open interest shows capacity, and the current OLP docs say 10% of spreads flows into the Variational treasury.

Money enters the venue

—30D volume

—open interest

Trading activity feeds the spread pool.

→

Implied spread payments

—

treasury accumulated ÷ 10% protocol share

→

Protocol treasury

—

10% of spread payments captured on-chain

→

Buyback-burn firepower

—

30% of treasury revenue earmarked for $VAR

FLOW: market activity → trader spread fees → Variational treasury → future $VAR buyback-burn firepower.

Customer $1 Spread → Buyback Burn unit economics

The only unit-economics view that matters: one customer spread dollar, the treasury cut, and the activity needed to produce it.

Customer pays

$1.00

spread paid on a trade

→

OLP / LP side

$0.90

remains with OLP side for market making, hedging, and LP economics

Protocol treasury

$0.10

10% of the spread flows to Variational

→

Buyback-burn firepower

$0.03

30% of treasury revenue earmarked for $VAR

—

Trading volume needed to create $1 of trader spread paymentselected volume ÷ implied spread payments

—

Open interest needed to create $1/day of trader spread paymentOI ÷ implied daily spread payments

—

Current buyback-burn firepower loaded per daydaily treasury revenue × 30% burn floor

A customer’s $1.00 spread now implies $0.90 to the OLP / LP side, $0.10 to the Variational treasury, and $0.03 of buyback-burn firepower at the current 30% burn floor. Treasury has 0 outflows so far — this is loaded firepower, burn not yet executed on-chain.

The Math 수식 · every implied number, derived

Only 2 measured inputs and 2 protocol constants drive the whole engine — every "implied" figure is one of these equations with the live value plugged in. Verify each line.

T = treasury USDC on-chain — V = 30D perp volume — Q = open interest — s = treasury share of spreads 0.10 b = burn floor 0.30 subscript ₃₀ = trailing-30-day amount

Spread fees paid by tradersF = Ts=—

OLP / LP sideF_olp = F − T = T(1−s)s=—

Buyback-burn firepowerB = b·T=—

Effective spread take-rateτ = F₃₀V × 10⁴=—

Volume for $1 in spread feesVF₃₀ = s·VT₃₀=—

Volume for $1 bought & burnedVB₃₀ = Vb·T₃₀=—

OI for $1/day in spread feesQF₃₀ / 30=—

OI for $1/day burnedQB₃₀ / 30=—

Per $1 customer spread: 1−s = $0.90 OLP+ s = $0.10 treasury→ s·b = $0.03 burn

② Fee per trader Dune · entropy_advisors

Average fee paid per unique trader = cumulative fees ÷ unique traders. Dune's live API needs a key, so paste the trader count from the dashboard and it computes instantly:

Unique traders

—

avg total fees / trader

—

to treasury / trader

—

volume / trader (30d)

Points / FDV Calculator airdrop scenario

Sep 31 does not exist, so this uses the actual campaign deadline: Sep 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Your points ÷ total pool = share; share × FDV × airdrop allocation = estimated value.

Time left to deadline

Ends Sep 30, 2026 · 11:59PM ET

—

— elapsed—

My points Total pool

FDV scenario

—

Edit this FDV scenario 74% of HYPE FDV

EDIT · DRAG TO CHANGE

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——20% airdrop

——25% airdrop

——30% airdrop

How this is calculated for the team to verify

Every number above is derived from two public sources — verify each step:

Fees / revenuetreasury balance on-chain (Arbitrum USDC 0x5e91…d645), sampled daily via Tenderly archive RPC. Current OLP docs: revenue = 10% of spreads, so total spread payments = revenue ÷ 0.10.

Perp volume & OIDeFiLlama — OI live from /overview/open-interest; volume is a dated snapshot (DeFiLlama paywalls per-protocol volume).

Volume → $1 spreadvolume_30d ÷ spreads_30d where spreads_30d = revenue_30d ÷ 0.10. Take-rate (bps) = spreads ÷ volume × 10000.

Volume → $1 burnedvolume_30d ÷ (revenue_30d × 0.30) — burn is ≥30% of revenue.

OI → $1/dayOI ÷ (revenue_30d ÷ 30). Annual yield on OI = daily_rev × 365 ÷ OI.

Distance to HL(HL_metric ÷ VAR_metric − 1) × 100%. Comparison tab uses Perpetual Pulse OI and volume snapshots.

Fee per tradercumulative_fees ÷ unique_traders (traders from Dune).

Points calcmy_points ÷ total_pool × FDV × airdrop_%. Point value = output ÷ my_points.

Cumulative Accumulation —

Total USDC held over time — pure buyback inflow (no outflows recorded).

Actual on-chain Projected pace Range (soft–hot)

Drag either endpoint to tune pace

Growth per Interval

See how much the treasury added in each window and whether the rolling average is bending.

weekly

Interval added 4-period rolling avg

Period	Start	End	USDC Added	Δ %	Avg / day

Historical Health fees · OI · speed

One read for whether the venue is getting healthier: OI/capacity, implied spread fees, and the actual daily earning speed.

Fees vs Open Interest

Real daily data: OI from DeFiLlama, spread payments implied from treasury revenue ÷ 10%. Indexed to 100 at the start.

Open interest Treasury fees (30D) Fee yield on OI

Earning Velocity

Not the total — the speed it earns at. A rising line means the treasury is stacking faster over time.

Daily added bars 7-day avg line

Total Earnings + Fee/Revenue Calendar daily totals

Completed treasury revenue, implied activity, burn firepower, and market events. Daily view shows history plus pending dates only through the end of next week. Today stays pending until the ET day closes.

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SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

less more

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Click a cell to pick a period

Macro Events

Index Playbook

Perp DEX Positioning

Variational is compared with Lighter on the same current windows. Hyperliquid is shown separately as the market ceiling.

Bottom line

Capacity favors Variational. Revenue favors Lighter.

Booked revenue reflects each protocol's payout split, not earning power. Variational keeps 10% of trader spreads and routes 90% to OLP liquidity providers. Lighter keeps about 78% of the fees it collects.

Market rank#-loading market data

Open interest-loading

30D fee pool-loading

30D booked revenue-current monetization lead

Hyperliquid benchmarkScale ceiling, not a direct peer

-open interest

-24H volume

-30D revenue

Variational vs Lighter

Capacity, activity, fee pool, and booked revenue. No mixed all-time windows.

How these numbers are calculated

Weekly protocol revenueTrailing 8 matched weeks

Variational Lighter

Market rank: loadingShow top 13 by open interest

loading market snapshotloadingCoinGecko source ↗

#	Exchange	Open interest	24H volume

Implied Valuation

The model estimates circulating market cap from open interest. Listed tokens reveal the premium or discount investors currently pay.

Model-implied Variational MCAP

$—

Based on current OI $—. $VAR is pre-TGE, so this is not a traded value.

Gap to Hyperliquid

Comparing Variational's model value with Hyperliquid's current market cap

Model-implied FDV

$—

Assumes 25% circulating float. Range — across 20-33%.

Model, sources, and limitations